A typical US business lasts 7-11 years according to our research. A business cycle of 9-10 years was first identified in the 19th century and confirmed by Schumpeter in his two-volume Business Cycles (1939). Ancient history you might think, but since Schumpeter wrote we have had cycles of 7-11 years in the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. In fact four of those were in the 9-10 year range.

 

Only the 1950s and 1970s did not conform, the former likely because of stop-go fiscal policy while in the 1970s the massive oil shock of 1974 upset the pattern.