About
This website showcases my research on the economic cycle, primarily the US cycle which is still the most dominant, but cycles in other countries too, particularly China and Europe. Calverley Economic Advisors offers economic advice services to clients based on this business cycle framework.
Tricio Investment Advisors - Exciting New Venture!
Calverley Economic Advisors has entered a joint venture with Alphamax Capital and Redtower Asset Management to offer services to wealth managers and IFAs covering all aspects of the investment process. CEA is providing the economic input on the cycle as well as major economic themes which impact investments. For more information please go to Tricio-Advisors.com,
The typical US cycle
A typical US economic cycle lasts 7-11 years and goes through 5 distinct stages - recovery, early upswing, late upswing, peak and recession. Using this framework of stages, we analyse 6 key drivers of the cycle to identify what to expect next in the economy and markets.
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The key drivers of the US cycle are monetary policy, inflation, pent-up demands, inventory behaviour, business investment and financial fragility. Identifying the stage of the cycle is crucial because each stage will see the drivers unfold in a particular way. For a detailed explanation of our approach follow the menu above. For latest views see John Calverley's blog or this update on the current cycle.
A cycle of 9-10 years was first observed by Clement Juglar as far back as 1860 and was confirmed by Joseph Schumpeter in his comprehensive two-volume Business Cycles, published in 1939. Ancient history you might think, but since Schumpeter wrote we have had cycles of roughly that length in the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Only the 1950s and 1970s did not conform, the former likely because of stop-go fiscal policy while in the 1970s the massive oil shock of 1974 upset the pattern.